Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
